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Research Spending & Results

Award Detail

Awardee:UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII SYSTEMS
Doing Business As Name:University of Hawaii
PD/PI:
  • Megan Donahue
  • (808) 956-7800
  • donahuem@hawaii.edu
Co-PD(s)/co-PI(s):
  • Paul Jokiel ~000500656
Award Date:07/09/2010
Estimated Total Award Amount: $ 364,541
Funds Obligated to Date: $ 364,541
  • FY 2010=$364,541
Start Date:07/15/2010
End Date:06/30/2014
Transaction Type:Grant
Agency:NSF
Awarding Agency Code:4900
Funding Agency Code:4900
CFDA Number:47.050
Primary Program Source:040100 NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Award Title or Description:CAMEO: Multiscale modeling of Hawaii's coral reef communities
Federal Award ID Number:1041673
DUNS ID:965088057
Parent DUNS ID:009438664
Program:BIOLOGICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
Program Officer:
  • David L. Garrison
  • (703) 292-8582
  • dgarriso@nsf.gov

Awardee Location

Street:2440 Campus Road, Box 368
City:HONOLULU
State:HI
ZIP:96822-2234
County:Honolulu
Country:US
Awardee Cong. District:01

Primary Place of Performance

Organization Name:University of Hawaii
Street:2440 Campus Road, Box 368
City:HONOLULU
State:HI
ZIP:96822-2234
County:Honolulu
Country:US
Cong. District:01

Abstract at Time of Award

A key challenge in the effective management of marine ecosystems is translating from small scale studies of distribution and dynamics to the regional scale of management action. In many marine ecosystems, including the Hawaiian Archipelago, there are extensive survey data of nearshore communities from multiple investigators, representing a huge investment of resources. Often, these data are underutilized and remain of limited use to managers. In the Hawaiian Archipelago, at least seven separate entities are engaged in surveys of coral reef communities, with varying degrees of coordination. The synthesis of these data requires integrated modeling approaches at multiple scales. This study builds on an existing database and extends two existing models: the Coral Recovery Model (CRM) of stochastic coral recovery after disturbance and the COMBO model of the synergistic impacts of increasing acidification and temperature on coral reefs. Extending from this prior work is the application of two innovative modeling approaches (scale transition theory and fundamental niche modeling) to predict coral community composition and dynamics at the regional scale. Fundamental niche modeling uses multiple data fitting approaches (regression, machine learning, etc) to describe the relationship between species and their environments, using a split dataset for training and validation. This approach can generate a predictive and validated spatially continuous model of species distribution from discrete data points. The scale transition modeling will use the completed database of species distributions as the landscape on which species interactions occur. These interactions are described by a local model, here, based on recruitment, growth, and mortality from the Coral Recovery Model. In scale transition theory, the local model plus landscape information on the distribution and co-distribution of organisms and their environments predicts how a species assemblage responds (locally and regionally) to changes in biotic and abiotic factors on the landscape. This project will generate four products relevant to ecosystem-based management of the Hawaiian Archipelago, resulting in significant impacts beyond the research community: (1) A Hawaiian Archipelago-wide GIS database of coral distribution, benthic community data, fish surveys, and other data gathered by CRAMP, NPS (National Park Service), various divisions in NOAA, the Hawaii Division of Aquatic Resources, and other sources into a single GIS database; (2) Validated, predictive, and spatially continuous maps of coral species distribution throughout the Archipelago; (3) A validated Coral Recovery Model for coral reef mitigation in the Main Hawaiian Islands; (4) Prediction of coral community response to climate change throughout the Hawaiian Archipelago, based on known and predicted coral distributions and the COMBO model.

Publications Produced as a Result of this Research

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Jokiel, Paul Louis; "OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND CONTROL OF REEF CORAL CALCIFICATION BY BOUNDARY LAYER LIMITATION OF PROTON FLUX" BULLETIN OF MARINE SCIENCE, v.87, 2011, p.639-657.

Franklin, Erik C.; Jokiel, Paul L.; Donahue, Megan J. "Predictive modeling of coral distribution and abundance in the Hawaiian Islands" MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES, v.481, 2013, p.121-132.

Hoeke, RK; Jokiel, PL; Buddemeier, RW; Brainard, RE "Projected Changes to Growth and Mortality of Hawaiian Corals over the Next 100 Years" PLOS ONE, v.6, 2011, p.. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.001803  View record at Web of Science

Jokiel, PL "OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND CONTROL OF REEF CORAL CALCIFICATION BY BOUNDARY LAYER LIMITATION OF PROTON FLUX" BULLETIN OF MARINE SCIENCE, v.87, 2011, p.639. doi:10.5343/bms.2010.110  View record at Web of Science

Jokiel, Paul Louis "Ocean acidification and control of reef coral calcification by boundary layer limitation of proton flux" Bulletin of Marine Science, v.87, 2011, p.639--657.

Jokiel, P. L. "Coral reef calcification: carbonate, bicarbonate and proton flux under conditions of increasing ocean acidification" Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, v.280, 2013, p.20130031.

Jokiel, Paul L. and Bahr, Keisha D. and Rodgers, Ku'ulei S. "Low-cost, high-flow mesocosm system for simulating ocean acidification with {CO} 2 gas" Limnology and Oceanography Methods, v., 2014, p..

Jokiel, Paul L.; "The reef coral two compartment proton flux model: A new approach relating tissue-level physiological processes to gross corallum morphology" JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL MARINE BIOLOGY AND ECOLOGY, v.409, 2011, p.1-12.

Jokiel, Paul L. "The reef coral two compartment proton flux model: A new approach relating tissue-level physiological processes to gross corallum morphology" Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, v.409, 2011, p.1. doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2011.10.008 

Jokiel PL "Coral reef calcification: carbonate, bicarbonate and proton flux under conditions of increasing ocean acidification" Proc R Soc B, v.vol. 28, 2013, p.20130031. doi:10.1098/rspb.2013.0031 

Hoeke, Ron K. and Jokiel, Paul L. and Buddemeier, Robert W. and Brainard, Russell E. "Projected changes to growth and mortality of Hawaiian corals over the next 100 years" {PloS} one, v.6, 2011, p.e18038.

Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Jokiel, Paul L.; Rodgers, Ku'ulei S.; Andersson, Andreas J.; Mackenzie, Fred T. "An apparent "vital effect" of calcification rate on the Sr/Ca temperature proxy in the reef coral Montipora capitata" Nature Geoscience, v.13, 2012, p.114-117. doi:10.1038/ngeo100 

Hoeke, Ron K.; Jokiel, Paul L.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Brainard, Russell E. "Projected Changes to Growth and Mortality of Hawaiian Corals over the Next 100 Years" PLOS ONE, v.6, 2011, p.e18038.

Franklin, Erik C. and Jokiel, Paul L. and Donahue, Megan J. "Predictive modeling of coral distribution and abundance in the Hawaiian Islands" Marine Ecology Progress Series, v.481, 2013, p.121--132. doi:10.3354/meps10252 


Project Outcomes Report

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

The Hawaiian Archipelago is the most geographically isolated island chain in the world, and the coral reefs of the Hawaiian Archipelago comprise the majority of coral reefs in the United States.  Anthropogenic threats to coral reef ecosystems have historically occurred at local scales, such as overfishing, sedimentation and nutrient loading through terrestrial run-off, and habitat destruction. These local risks are now compounded by risks at the global scale of climate change, where increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is influencing the temperature, pH, and circulation patterns of the global oceans. Even as our understanding of these risks has increased, so has our understanding of the services provided by coral reef ecosystems, including seafood, recreation, nutrient cycling, and  protection of shores from erosion and storm damage.

The first hurdle in effective ecosystem management is the assessment of current condition. In many marine ecosystems, including the Hawaiian Archipelago, there are extensive survey data of nearshore communities from multiple investigators, including state and federal agencies, representing a huge investment of resources. Often, these data are underutilized or inaccessible and remain of limited use to scientists and managers. Therefore, the first achievement of this project was to synthesize and share archipelago-wide data from the many surveys of coral reef communities of the Hawaiian Archipelago into a single database of >15,000 records.  Using this new database, we developed and validated statistical models to predict the distribution of coral throughout Hawai‘i.  These models can be visualized as a continuous map of coral distribution and abundance for the dominant corals in Hawaii.  These maps have been shared with local resource managers to better understand the impacts of management decisions and are available at the PacIOOS Voyager geographic information server (oos.soest.hawaii.edu).

Coral distributions are net result of individual coral colonies changing through time.  Individual colonies change through recruitment (establishment of a new coral colony), growth (the expansion of a coral colony), partial mortality (the death of part of a coral colony), fission (when a single colony breaks into smaller colonies), fusion (when multiple colonies fuse into a single colony), and colony death (the death of an entire colony).  The way that these processes differ between sites can help us understand the environmental and anthropogenic factors that are impacting coral population growth.  Ongoing monitoring efforts in Hawai‘i include permanent photo quadrats, in which the same small area of reef is photographed year after year.  Using these photographs, we measured the changes in individual coral colonies through time, to compare differences across species and across sites.  We found distinct differences in recruitment, growth, and partial mortality at sites around Maui will help managers identify the features at each of these sites that put corals at risk.  

Predicting the future condition of coral reefs in a changing climate is a fundamental challenge of our time.  This project has made two revisions to the modeling assumptions that are currently used to predict the future fate of coral reefs.  Assumption 1:  Current models use shifts in aragonite saturation state to predict the response of coral reefs to ocean acidification.  Instead, coral calcification is driven primarily by photosynthetic rate (available light) and limited by the efflux of protons from the corals.  Assumption 2: Current models generally assume that coral reef calcification rate is equivalent to coral calcification rate; however, coral reefs communities include both corals and other calcifiers, such as crustose coralline alga...

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